Editorials

2nd March 07

6th November 06

Don't miss out!

Our Editorial from last week highlighted the relative strength that GBP has displayed this year, most notably against the USD, where GBP has appreciated by around 10% supported by the increase in UK growth performance, rising rates and stubbornly high inflation. This is all about to end!
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31st October 06

The Ghost of Christmas past!

GBP has been the best performing major currency this year with gains of around 9.5% against the USD, 2.5% against the EUR, 10% against the JPY and 6% against the CAD. There are several factors to which we can attribute GBP's strong performance this year. However there are also some very strong reasons why we expect GBP to falter from its current high levels and as such we recommend selling GBP across the board at this juncture.
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23rd August 06

Banging the same drum!

Holiday induced illiquidity has teamed up with a lull in data releases to create a very quiet market for Foreign exchange this week. European investor concerns have been highlighted by a negative ZEW economic research institute release; however the current conditions component of the release showed an increase. Perhaps the prospects of further rate rises from the Euro zone and the above 8% increase in the value of the EUR this year are beginning to impact investor expectations negatively.
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14th August 06

Sterling Threat

A week on from the "Frying Pan and Fire" editorial that highlighted our views on GBP; we have already begun to see some movement. The rally in GBPUSD in the light of the MPC's surprise rate hike was aggressive in a holiday induced thin market but the opportunity to sell GBP at great levels that this has provided is significant.
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7th August 06

Frying Pan and Fire

The USD opens this week with a bit of a hangover, after Fridays employment report sparked a significant sell off. The data demonstrate quite clearly, on the back of the Q2 GDP figures, that the US economy is reaching an important juncture. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke now faces a tough test of his leadership as the economy faces the twin woes of sharply weaker growth and accelerating price pressures.
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